General consensus is that the swine flu virus may become dormant during the summer season and a potential epidemic may occur in the Autumn\Winter season. This is due to three factors:-

• In summer there is more ultraviolet light which has the effect of disabling the virus. During the Autumn\Winter season there is less ultraviolet protection.
• People’s immune systems are generally weaker in the colder months.
• Virus’s are different to other living organisms in that they have enabled and a disabled states and so can lie dormant for months and years before being reactivated.

The main defence against viruses is not a technological business continuity plan but good hygiene, so it is essential that organisations use some of the government sponsored websites to download materials for their internal campaigns about the need for good hygiene. However, employees need more than good hygiene techniques, this is because clean hands are quickly contaminated during contact with an unclean surface.

Hospital studies have shown that about 50% of the surfaces we touch carry infectious strains of virus and bacteria, and that some strains can survive on surfaces for months! Toilet doors, taps, public keyboards, elevator buttons, phones, pens, and magazines have been found to be more highly contaminated than some public toilets. Worse still, cloths which have picked up the virus from one surface can then be used to spread that virus further when used to clean other surfaces. So in addition to a ‘wash your hands with soap’ type campaign, organisations also need to think about how they will educate their cleaners in the use of cloths used for cleaning.

Some people have asked why the government isn’t inoculating people with the stock piles of Tammi Flu and Relenza that they now have, however the big problem here is that if someone has been inoculated, the virus could evolve and become more virulent. On the 1st May 2009, the Independent newspaper published over fifty of the most common questions people have asked about the H1N1 virus (or swine flu). Here are two which relate to innoculation:

Q. How safe are influenza vaccines?
A. Very safe. However, there was a bad experience in 1976 when a vaccine was developed against a swine flu outbreak. Some 40 million Americans were injected with the vaccine, which killed 25 and left 500 others with Guillain Barré syndrome, a serious neurological disorder. The vaccine turned out more dangerous than the original flu outbreak, which killed only one person.

Q. Is it true that the H1N1 swine flu virus will evolve into a more dangerous form?
A. It is a serious possibility. Pandemic flu viruses in the past have first appeared in a mild form and then evolved into more dangerous strains. The virus could evolve into a form that causes a more severe reaction, resulting in more bodily fluids being expelled from the lungs and increasing the virus's ability to spread. However the virus may just peter out.

In summary, the government is asking organisations to do more than just think about business contingency. Organisations need to think about employee hygiene campaigns and the techniques used by cleaners and look out for any areas that but are not usually cleaned (such as door handles) that could possibly contain contaminants.

For further reading
The Independent - Swine Flu Q & A
DirectGov – Everything you need to know about swine flu (apparently!)
Business Link – Practical advice for business
National Health Service – What To Do If You Think You’ve Got Swine Flu
Health Protection Agency – Human Swine Influenza Advice for the public
Security Vibes Podcast Will Your Pandemic Contingency Actually Work